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Why I never buy crates anymore...

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  • Why I never buy crates anymore...

    So I've decided to track my crate drops over the past few years after having the unfortunate results of 21 common LTs in a row (they are not included in my data) and it drove me nuts with frustration. Ever since the implementation of crate shards, I have wondered if LT percentages have changed, or if they were rewarding those of us who do not spend FPs on crate rolls. All of the crates I logged below are either from crate shards, or won/gifted from completing jobs or rewards from events. If you don't want to look at my data list below, here are the results:

    Common: 131 LTs (55.5%) - Advertised at 55%
    Uncommon: 74 LTs (31.4%) - Advertised at 30%
    Rare: 27 LTs (11.4%) - Advertised 10%
    Epic: 4 LTs (1.7%) - Advertised 5%
    Total Crates: 236

    I have waited until I have data with n > 200 as it is well above the recommended sample size of 100 for non-research based averages. I will continue to update the data as I accumulate more crates.

    That being said, based on the current above data, the drop rate for epic LTs is FAR BELOW the advertised 5%. With 236 crates, it should be at least 11 epic LTs (11.8 to be exact), but instead I earned 4, which is 33% of the advertised amount. This has barely changed since I hit n = 75. So, based on the provided data, either 1) I have the WORST luck in the entire game, or 2) the advertised crate roll percentages are incorrect. I would love to hear from the game developers overall crate reward percentages WITH data provided to show us that we are being rewarded accurately.

    Date Common Uncommon Rare Epic Note Crate Number Percentage
    8/18/19 1 Common 131 55.5%
    8/20/19 4 2 Uncommon 74 31.4%
    8/20/19 2 1 Rare 27 11.4%
    8/23/19 1 Epic 4 1.7%
    8/26/19 1 Total: 236 100%
    8/28/19 1
    9/2/19 1
    9/7/19 1
    9/9/19 1
    9/13/19 2
    9/16/19 1
    9/17/19 1
    9/18/19 3 3
    9/23/19 1
    9/30/19 1
    10/1/19 1
    10/7/19 1
    10/9/19 1
    10/14/19 1 Epic crate 91 possible
    10/15/19 1 32 owned of 91
    10/20/19 2 Repeats 2
    10/21/19 1 New 1
    10/22/19 1
    10/25/19 1
    10/28/19 1
    11/4/19 1
    11/6/19 1
    11/11/19 1
    11/17/19 1
    11/18/19 1
    11/23/19 1 3 1
    11/25/19 1
    11/26/19 1
    12/2/19 1
    12/6/19 1
    12/9/19 1
    12/16/19 1
    12/17/19 1
    12/20/19 7 3 1 million man boss
    12/23/19 2 2 mmb scratchers and bonus shards
    12/26/19 1
    12/30/19 1
    12/31/19 1
    1/8/20 1
    1/15/20 1 1
    1/20/20 1
    1/20/20 1
    2/8/20 1
    2/13/20 1
    2/14/20 1
    2/16/20 1
    2/18/20 2 turf wars
    2/21/20 1
    2/24/20 1 1
    2/25/20 1
    2/29/20 1
    3/2/20 1
    3/14/20 1 1
    3/19/20 2
    3/23/20 1
    3/24/20 1
    3/28/20 1
    4/4/20 1
    4/6/20 1
    4/20/20 5 4 1 MMB
    4/22/20 1 1
    4/27/20 2
    4/30/20 1 1
    5/4/20 1
    5/8/20 1
    5/10/20 1
    5/14/20 1
    5/18/20 1
    5/20/20 1
    5/22/20 6 1 1 Battle royale
    5/26/20 1
    5/28/20 1
    6/3/20 1
    6/5/20 1
    6/15/20 1
    6/16/20 2 2 Turf Wars
    6/22/20 1
    6/24/20 1
    6/25/20 1
    6/30/20 1
    7/4/20 1
    7/9/20 1
    7/11/20 1
    7/14/20 3 Casino Royale
    7/17/20 1
    7/19/20 1
    7/23/20 1
    7/29/20 1
    7/30/20 1
    8/1/20 1
    8/3/20 1
    8/9/20 1
    8/10/20 1
    8/19/20 8 2 2 MMB
    9/1/20 1 1
    9/5/20 1
    9/13/20 2
    9/18/20 2 Turf Wars
    9/19/20 1 1
    9/21/20 2
    9/26/20 1
    9/27/20 1
    10/11/20 1
    10/14/20 1
    10/19/20 1 casino royale
    10/21/20 1
    10/24/20 1
    11/7/20 2
    11/14/20 1 1
    11/23/20 3 2 Battle royale
    11/26/20 1
    11/28/20 2
    12/16/20 4 5 MMB
    1/1/21 1 **holiday crate**
    1/13/21 1 1
    1/16/21 1
    1/19/21 1
    1/23/21 1 2
    1/26/21 1
    2/2/21 1
    2/4/21 1
    2/6/21 1
    2/10/21 1
    2/12/21 1 valentines crate
    2/13/21 1
    2/15/21 1
    2/18/21 2 1 Turf Wars
    2/20/21 1
    2/21/21 1
    2/24/21 1
    2/27/21 1
    3/5/21 1
    3/8/21 1
    3/14/21 2

  • #2
    Your drop rate is very close to mine. It’s unfortunate that UE mistreats it’s few remaining customers.


    • #3
      It's definitely janky. Multiple times I've rolled ~40 crates across multiple accounts from million man boss rewards and rolled 0 epics.


      • #4
        Your point would be valid if it were a cumulative 5% chance of getting epics, then yes, you should get 5 for every 100 crate rolls. However, I'm sure it's a resetting 5% epic roll chance, meaning that no matter how many crates you open, each individual one has a 5% chance of producing an epic and the total number of crates has no bearing on that outcome.


        • #5
          Durbit, you should ask the devs to put as “cumulative 5% of getting epics” rather than 5 percent of getting epics. I’ve spend Thousand here so you with licktvfew 5 star epics shouldn’t talk much. Try playing with 50 energy and 50 stamina and roll crates. Don’t bulshit me with the way I build I get less epics . I see the ads as 5 percent drop for epics soooo I dont do events but I do crates


          • #6
            I couldnt agree anymore with this! Iv said the same thing after the first 2 years iv played


            • #7
              Originally posted by Durbit View Post
              Your point would be valid if it were a cumulative 5% chance of getting epics, then yes, you should get 5 for every 100 crate rolls. However, I'm sure it's a resetting 5% epic roll chance, meaning that no matter how many crates you open, each individual one has a 5% chance of producing an epic and the total number of crates has no bearing on that outcome.
              But this is the whole point of the large sample size (emphasis in bold is mine). With an n (n=sample size) large enough, the percentage drop rates should even out to the advertised drop rates. Cumulative or resetting is irrelevant (which I'm pretty sure isn't even a thing in the world of statistics). The concept of averages in statistics takes into account that each roll has an independent chance irrelevant from the previous roll, and therefore requires a large sample size to adjust for that. I'm up to 242, which is more than enough.

              As an update, I got an epic the other day! But alas, still not 5% drop rate. Updated percentages:

              Common: 133 LTs (55.0%) - Advertised at 55%
              Uncommon: 75 LTs (31.0%) - Advertised at 30%
              Rare: 29 LTs (12.0%) - Advertised 10%
              Epic: 5 LTs (2.1%) - Advertised 5%
              Total Crates: 242


              • #8
                Here's my theory.
                The game has an issue with it's RNG engine, more specifically looping results.
                Over time we've seen some very strange patterns from players like rolling reine 4 times in a row from a super crate or some people getting LV over and over.
                In general it seems like everybody rolls a subset of 5-6 epics they get over and over from epic crates.
                It is most likely that each account or character has some seed associated with it and your RNG fate is basically decided upon creation of the char.

                This issue of looping results is not only prevelant with crates/scratchers. For other ingame proc chances like crit or all the token lts you can often experience droughts and extreme sprees (getting no procs or 10 in a row)

                So even if the devs did a large sample test that wouldn't hold any meaningfulness unless it was done on your account specifically (the whole issue with character seeding)


                • #9
                  This game I believe has always slanted accounts. Just like the underworld boss you are predisposed to get one item and the others drop at a lower rate.

                  I’m 1000% convinced it’s the same with the crates. Overkill probably has a drop rate of .005 then the rest of the epics split the rest.

                  although the chance of getting an epic may be 5% the chance of each Lt within that group is not likely even.

                  I’ve rolled 4 epics in one VIP before and I’ve also rolled 2 VIPs a long time ago and didn’t even get a rare.

                  was during different owners so not sure if those things weren’t tweaked.

                  I do know that when they had the crate roll glitch a while ago that I rolled hundred of crates around 700 of them and the drop rates were almost spot on. I believe the drop rate for epics I calculated was somewhere around 7%. I screenshotted every roll and me and my wife did the math later.

                  So I happen to agree with an above poster that I think the game fails to properly clear cache after each action and you end up stuck in a loop.

                  nanosuit is 15% chance and I’ve seen it trigger 6 times in a row. While my current dodge is almost 35% and I’ll go 10+ hits before it triggers.

                  with that said it’s not a stretch to say the mechanics could be broken as we screamed to high heaven for over a year that Sara parts weren’t dropping and they swore it was then after all that time ate crow and said it wasn’t and then increased the drop rate to compensate for it.


                  • #10
                    Cyborg and Xcali, I think both of those explanations are the most plausible. I have seen many times (although I have not documented it) getting the same common in a row 4-5 times (which is a (.55*8)^5 = .00015% chance of happening) and wondered how that could possibly happen. I would also not be surprised if drop rates for epics while using FP is higher than while using earned/free crates, as Xcali noted.

                    Regardless, I think both of you make the same point that I do, that if crates are not a true RNG, then the advertised rates are misleading and incorrect. Legality and false advertising aside, this is something that has prevented me from spending any money on the game since very early on in the game. I regret the small amount I have already spent on the game for this reason.


                    • #11

                      Common: 133 LTs (55.5%) - Advertised at 55%
                      Uncommon: 80 LTs (30.2%) - Advertised at 30%
                      Rare: 31 LTs (11.7%) - Advertised 10%
                      Epic: 7 LTs (2.6%) - Advertised 5%
                      Total Crates: 265


                      • #12

                        Common: 164 LTs (55.6%) - Advertised at 55%
                        Uncommon: 90 LTs (30.5%) - Advertised at 30%
                        Rare: 33 LTs (11.2%) - Advertised 10%
                        Epic: 8 LTs (2.7%) - Advertised 5%
                        Total Crates: 295


                        • #13

                          Common: 185 LTs (55.9%) - Advertised at 55%
                          Uncommon: 101 LTs (30.5%) - Advertised at 30%
                          Rare: 37 LTs (11.2%) - Advertised 10%
                          Epic: 8 LTs (2.4%) - Advertised 5%
                          Total Crates: 331


                          • #14

                            Common: 214 LTs (56.2%) - Advertised at 55%
                            Uncommon: 115 LTs (30.2%) - Advertised at 30%
                            Rare: 43 LTs (11.3%) - Advertised 10%
                            Epic: 9 LTs (2.4%) - Advertised 5%
                            Total Crates: 381

                            This continues to seem lower than advertised for epic lt's.


                            • #15

                              Common: 250 LTs (55.9%) - Advertised at 55%
                              Uncommon: 133 LTs (29.8%) - Advertised at 30%
                              Rare: 48 LTs (10.7%) - Advertised 10%
                              Epic: 16 LTs (3.6%) - Advertised 5%
                              Total Crates: 447